ForexPulse

US Non Farm Payrolls: release history and market reaction

Over the last 25 US Non Farm Payrolls releases (24 with XAUUSD data), XAUUSD moved 0.54% on average in the first 15 minutes and 0.53% within an hour.

When Non Farm Payrolls came in above forecast, XAUUSD fell within 15 minutes 10 of 12 times; below forecast, it rose 11 of 12 times.

The last release, for Sep, came in at 29K vs 90K forecast.

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Last 25 releases

Impact on
Past releases with actual, forecast and surprise, and how XAUUSD moved after each: at 15 minutes, 1 hour and the day's close
DateActualForecastSurpriseXAUUSD 15M1HClose
Sepbelow forecast 29K90K−61KXAUUSD after 15 minutes: +0.58%XAUUSD after 1 hour: +0.15%XAUUSD at the day's close: −1.11%
Augabove forecast 162K56K+106KXAUUSD after 15 minutes: −1.75%XAUUSD after 1 hour: −1.33%XAUUSD at the day's close: −0.95%
Julbelow forecast -23K80K−103KXAUUSD after 15 minutes: +1.33%XAUUSD after 1 hour: +1.08%XAUUSD at the day's close: +0.74%
Junbelow forecast 57K110K−53KXAUUSD after 15 minutes: +1.67%XAUUSD after 1 hour: +1.20%XAUUSD at the day's close: +2.75%
Mayabove forecast 172K85K+87KXAUUSD after 15 minutes: −0.42%XAUUSD after 1 hour: −1.36%XAUUSD at the day's close: −3.08%
Aprabove forecast 115K62K+53KXAUUSD after 15 minutes: +0.29%XAUUSD after 1 hour: +0.36%XAUUSD at the day's close: +0.11%
Marabove forecast 178K60K+118KXAUUSD after 15 minutes: —XAUUSD after 1 hour: —XAUUSD at the day's close: —
Febbelow forecast -92K59K−151KXAUUSD after 15 minutes: +0.76%XAUUSD after 1 hour: +0.42%XAUUSD at the day's close: +1.74%
Janabove forecast 130K70K+60KXAUUSD after 15 minutes: −0.43%XAUUSD after 1 hour: −0.22%XAUUSD at the day's close: −0.25%
Decbelow forecast 50K60K−10KXAUUSD after 15 minutes: +0.30%XAUUSD after 1 hour: +0.47%XAUUSD at the day's close: +0.81%
Octbelow forecast -105K55K−160KXAUUSD after 15 minutes: +0.07%XAUUSD after 1 hour: +0.56%XAUUSD at the day's close: +0.66%
Sepabove forecast 119K50K+69KXAUUSD after 15 minutes: −0.13%XAUUSD after 1 hour: −0.13%XAUUSD at the day's close: −0.82%
Augbelow forecast 22K75K−53KXAUUSD after 15 minutes: +0.81%XAUUSD after 1 hour: +0.69%XAUUSD at the day's close: +0.89%
Julbelow forecast 73K110K−37KXAUUSD after 15 minutes: +1.13%XAUUSD after 1 hour: +1.51%XAUUSD at the day's close: +1.85%
Junabove forecast 147K110K+37KXAUUSD after 15 minutes: −1.12%XAUUSD after 1 hour: −0.52%XAUUSD at the day's close: −0.34%
Mayabove forecast 139K130K+9KXAUUSD after 15 minutes: −0.17%XAUUSD after 1 hour: −0.15%XAUUSD at the day's close: −1.44%
Aprabove forecast 177K130K+47KXAUUSD after 15 minutes: −0.09%XAUUSD after 1 hour: −0.05%XAUUSD at the day's close: −0.57%
Marabove forecast 228K135K+93KXAUUSD after 15 minutes: −0.14%XAUUSD after 1 hour: −0.68%XAUUSD at the day's close: −1.90%
Febbelow forecast 151K160K−9KXAUUSD after 15 minutes: +0.39%XAUUSD after 1 hour: +0.18%XAUUSD at the day's close: −0.01%
Janbelow forecast 143K170K−27KXAUUSD after 15 minutes: −0.04%XAUUSD after 1 hour: +0.37%XAUUSD at the day's close: −0.09%
Decabove forecast 256K160K+96KXAUUSD after 15 minutes: −0.03%XAUUSD after 1 hour: +0.46%XAUUSD at the day's close: +0.45%
Novabove forecast 227K200K+27KXAUUSD after 15 minutes: +0.05%XAUUSD after 1 hour: −0.17%XAUUSD at the day's close: −0.06%
Octbelow forecast 12K113K−101KXAUUSD after 15 minutes: +0.17%XAUUSD after 1 hour: +0.10%XAUUSD at the day's close: −0.53%
Sepabove forecast 254K140K+114KXAUUSD after 15 minutes: −0.60%XAUUSD after 1 hour: −0.17%XAUUSD at the day's close: −0.14%
Augbelow forecast 142K160K−18KXAUUSD after 15 minutes: +0.38%XAUUSD after 1 hour: −0.27%XAUUSD at the day's close: −0.76%

Moves are measured from the price at release. Updated daily. Market data, not financial advice.